Emmen 2-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Den Bosch travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 outings — a 1.43 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 1.14 conceded. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 3W 0D 4L from 7 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.29 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.43 PPG (Emmen) versus 1.29 (Den Bosch). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Den Bosch trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 57% versus Den Bosch 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 43% | Den Bosch 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.59 xG and Den Bosch 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.158 / defence 1.138 | Den Bosch attack 0.668 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.442. Data: 7 Emmen games / 7 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 49% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 26%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Den Bosch 3.85. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Emmen 33% | Den Bosch 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 49% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Emmen 1.59 / Den Bosch 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.158 / def 1.138 | Den Bosch attack 0.668 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Emmen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Den Bosch xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Den Bosch kick off?
Emmen vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Emmen 2 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Emmen vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Den Bosch part of?
Emmen vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 49% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Emmen and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Den Bosch?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and Den Bosch in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-0D-4L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.16x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.01
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.69
1.10
Den Bosch xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
18.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Emmen and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Emmen and 1.10 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 1D 3L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.43 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Emmen's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 3W 0D 4L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Den Bosch away?
Emmen's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.00 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Den Bosch runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when Den Bosch won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Den Bosch?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Den Bosch have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Den Bosch?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Den Bosch see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Emmen 33% BTTS, Den Bosch 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Emmen and 33% for Den Bosch.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 33%; Emmen have failed to score in 67% of games; Den Bosch in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Emmen's recent matches and 33% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Emmen's recent games and 33% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Den Bosch 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.59 xG and Den Bosch 1.10 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.16 / defence 1.14 against Den Bosch attack 0.67 / defence 1.03, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 49% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 26%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 43%, Den Bosch 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.43 PPG, Den Bosch 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.