Dordrecht 2-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Willem II make the trip to Matchoholic Stadion to face Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 November 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Dordrecht (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Matchoholic Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Willem II have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.50 for Willem II. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 65% versus Willem II 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 69% | Willem II 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.40 xG and Willem II 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.963 / defence 1.234 | Willem II attack 1.033 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.340. Data: 53 Dordrecht games / 15 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 32% | Draw 24% | Willem II 45%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Willem II 2.22. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | Willem II 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Nov 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 32% | Draw 24% | Willem II 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Dordrecht 1.40 / Willem II 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.963 / def 1.234 | Willem II attack 1.033 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Willem II (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Willem II xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Willem II kick off?
Dordrecht vs Willem II kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 November 2022 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Willem II?
Dordrecht 2 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Dordrecht vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Willem II part of?
Dordrecht vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 32% chance of winning, Willem II a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Dordrecht and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dordrecht and Willem II in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.96) and Willem II's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.03x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
32%
3.17
24%
4.25
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.11
1.71
Willem II xG
3.17
32%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
6%
17.48
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.71 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 10D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.14 PPG from 49 outings (15W 11D 23L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.14 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Dordrecht's home form reads 9W 4D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 0.75 points per game from 24 outings (4W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.08 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Willem II in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 13W 10D 26L in their last 49 games (1.00 PPG), while Willem II have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Willem II away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.29 PPG; Willem II away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Willem II have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Dordrecht
2
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Willem II?
From 8 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 1, Willem II have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Dordrecht 1-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 54%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Dordrecht and 58% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 33% of games; Willem II in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Dordrecht's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Dordrecht's matches and 58% of Willem II's.
Do Dordrecht and Willem II tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Willem II in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and Willem II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht and Willem II finished level at 2-2 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.40 xG and Willem II 1.71 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.96 / defence 1.23 against Willem II attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 32% | Draw 24% | Willem II 45%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 69%, Willem II 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.00 PPG, Willem II 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.