Dordrecht 0-0 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and Telstar meet at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 January 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Matchoholic Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Telstar have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Telstar are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Telstar in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dordrecht, 2 for Telstar and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Telstar half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 63% and Telstar 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 68% | Telstar 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.35 xG and Telstar 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.911 / defence 1.176 | Telstar attack 0.822 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.329. Data: 58 Dordrecht games / 57 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 38% | Draw 26% | Telstar 35%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Telstar 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Telstar (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 60% | Telstar 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 38% | Draw 26% | Telstar 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Dordrecht 1.35 / Telstar 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.911 / def 1.176 | Telstar attack 0.822 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Telstar xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Telstar kick off?
Dordrecht vs Telstar kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Dordrecht 0 - 0 Telstar.
Where is Dordrecht vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Telstar part of?
Dordrecht vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 38% chance of winning, Telstar a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dordrecht and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Telstar?
Record (3 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Telstar 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Telstar in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Telstar (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.82x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 58/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.82
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.63
1.28
Telstar xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.28 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht come into this having played 57 games, going 16W 12D 29L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 1.05 PPG from 57 outings (14W 18D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.05 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Dordrecht's home form reads 9W 6D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 1.00 points per game from 27 outings (6W 9D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.14 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Telstar in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 16W 12D 29L in their last 57 games (1.05 PPG), while Telstar have gone 14W 18D 25L in their last 57 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Telstar away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.22 PPG; Telstar away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 5-0 on 7 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
2
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, Telstar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Telstar 5-0 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 56%, Telstar 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Dordrecht) and 56% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Dordrecht's games and 63% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Dordrecht's matches and 56% of Telstar's.
Do Dordrecht and Telstar tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Telstar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dordrecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 21, as Dordrecht and Telstar drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.35 xG and Telstar 1.28 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Telstar landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.91 / defence 1.18 against Telstar attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 38% | Draw 26% | Telstar 35%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 68%, Telstar 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Telstar's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.05 PPG, Telstar 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.