Dordrecht 0-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and Telstar meet at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games (0.83 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 0W 2D 1L this season (3 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Telstar have collected 0.50 PPG across 6 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 0W 3D 3L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Telstar away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.83 for Dordrecht, 0.50 for Telstar — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Telstar half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 67% and Telstar 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 67% | Telstar 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.62 xG and Telstar 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.814 / defence 1.164 | Telstar attack 0.645 / defence 1.458. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.436. Telstar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.458 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Dordrecht games / 6 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 50% | Draw 25% | Telstar 25%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Telstar 4.00. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 67% | Telstar 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 50% | Draw 25% | Telstar 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Dordrecht 1.62 / Telstar 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.814 / def 1.164 | Telstar attack 0.645 / def 1.458 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Telstar xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Telstar kick off?
Dordrecht vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Dordrecht 0 - 1 Telstar.
Where is Dordrecht vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Telstar part of?
Dordrecht vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 50% chance of winning, Telstar a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dordrecht and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Telstar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dordrecht and Telstar in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.83 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Telstar (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.65x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.05
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.70
1.08
Telstar xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
5%
20.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.08 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Dordrecht against 0.50 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Dordrecht's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.17 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Telstar in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Telstar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Telstar in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Telstar have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Telstar away?
Dordrecht's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 0.67 PPG; Telstar away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 5-0 on 7 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
2
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, Telstar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Telstar 5-0 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 67%, Telstar 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Dordrecht and 100% for Telstar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 33% of games; Telstar in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 33% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Dordrecht's matches and 100% of Telstar's.
Do Dordrecht and Telstar tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Telstar in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Dordrecht 0-1 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.62 xG and Telstar 1.08 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Telstar attack 0.65 / defence 1.46, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 50% | Draw 25% | Telstar 25%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Telstar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 67%, Telstar 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Telstar's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.83 PPG, Telstar 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.