Dordrecht 0-3 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and NAC Breda meet at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Matchoholic Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
NAC Breda have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, NAC Breda have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Dordrecht, 1.10 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Dordrecht, 0 for NAC Breda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 65% versus NAC Breda 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 67% | NAC Breda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.90 xG and NAC Breda 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.992 / defence 0.930 | NAC Breda attack 0.953 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.341. Data: 49 Dordrecht games / 49 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 54% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 24%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 4.17. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 54% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Dordrecht 1.90 / NAC Breda 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.992 / def 0.930 | NAC Breda attack 0.953 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.19
NAC Breda xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs NAC Breda kick off?
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs NAC Breda?
Dordrecht 0 - 3 NAC Breda.
Where is Dordrecht vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs NAC Breda part of?
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 54% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dordrecht and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and NAC Breda?
Record (2 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Dordrecht and NAC Breda in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.95x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.48
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.09
1.19
NAC Breda xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
4%
28.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.19 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 14W 11D 24L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 20W 11D 18L from 49 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.45 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (9W 6D 9L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 7W 4D 13L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.47 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 14W 11D 24L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 20W 11D 18L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or NAC Breda away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.38 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-3 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2024, when NAC Breda 1-4 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and NAC Breda?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 58%, NAC Breda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Dordrecht and 62% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 29% of games; NAC Breda in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dordrecht's games and 54% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Dordrecht's matches and 62% of NAC Breda's.
Do Dordrecht and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Dordrecht 0-3 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.90 xG and NAC Breda 1.19 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 1.9 short of their projected output. NAC Breda outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against NAC Breda attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 54% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 24%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a NAC Breda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 67%, NAC Breda 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.08 PPG, NAC Breda 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.