Dordrecht 2-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and NAC Breda meet at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 3L across 6 games at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
NAC Breda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, NAC Breda have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, NAC Breda are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 69% versus NAC Breda 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 69% | NAC Breda 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.23 xG and NAC Breda 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.751 / defence 1.271 | NAC Breda attack 0.761 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.447. Dordrecht's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Dordrecht games / 13 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 33% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 41%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | NAC Breda 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 50% | NAC Breda 43%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 33% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Dordrecht 1.23 / NAC Breda 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.751 / def 1.271 | NAC Breda attack 0.761 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.40
NAC Breda xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs NAC Breda kick off?
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs NAC Breda?
Dordrecht 2 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Dordrecht vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs NAC Breda part of?
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 33% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dordrecht and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dordrecht and NAC Breda in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.76x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.83
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.63
1.40
NAC Breda xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.40 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.54 PPG on a 1W 4D 8L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, NAC Breda are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dordrecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.69 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 1W 4D 8L in their last 13 games (0.54 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 0.50 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-3 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2024, when NAC Breda 1-4 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and NAC Breda?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 50%, NAC Breda 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Dordrecht and 33% for NAC Breda.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 50% of games; NAC Breda in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 33% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Dordrecht's recent games and 33% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat NAC Breda 2-1 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.23 xG and NAC Breda 1.40 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.75 / defence 1.27 against NAC Breda attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 33% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 41%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 69%, NAC Breda 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.54. Form was overturned, with Dordrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.