Dordrecht vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 32 as Dordrecht welcome FC Volendam to M-Scores Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's home record at M-Scores Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC Volendam's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Dordrecht's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Dordrecht, 3 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2026, ended 1–6 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
FC Volendam trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 67% and FC Volendam 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 63% | FC Volendam 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.76 xG and FC Volendam 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.901 / defence 1.299 | FC Volendam attack 0.913 / defence 1.583. League average goals — home 1.933 / away 1.581. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.583 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Dordrecht games / 7 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 57% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 26%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.75 | Draw 5.56 | FC Volendam 3.85. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.76 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.63 combined xG gives a 84% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 79% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | FC Volendam 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 57% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 79% | xG Dordrecht 2.76 / FC Volendam 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.901 / def 1.299 | FC Volendam attack 0.913 / def 1.583 | league avg home 1.933 / away 1.581 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.88
FC Volendam xG
79%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs FC Volendam kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at M-Scores Stadion.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam part of?
Dordrecht vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 57% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 26% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Dordrecht and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Volendam?
Record (5 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 3W.
What form are Dordrecht and FC Volendam in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 0.90x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 2.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 6.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (6.5%), 3-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
57%
1.76
18%
5.64
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
4.63
1.88
FC Volendam xG
1.76
57%
Home win
5.64
18%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
68%
Over 3.5
1.47
32%
Under 3.5
3.12
49%
Over 4.5
2.04
51%
Under 4.5
1.96
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.83
Clean Sheet
15%
6.52
6%
15.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
2%
61.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.9%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.88 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 4.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 12D 20L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam's form line: 12W 8D 23L from 43 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.05 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 3W 2D 16L from 21 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.28 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 11W 12D 20L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 12W 8D 23L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC Volendam away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.10 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2026, when FC Volendam won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
0
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Volendam?
From 5 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, FC Volendam have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when FC Volendam 6-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 62%, FC Volendam 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Dordrecht) and 62% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 48% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Dordrecht's matches and 62% of FC Volendam's.
Do Dordrecht and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.