Dordrecht 1-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and FC OSS meet at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Monday 14 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dordrecht's home record at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC OSS in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with FC OSS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 72% and FC OSS 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 79% | FC OSS 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.91 xG and FC OSS 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.096 / defence 1.397 | FC OSS attack 0.819 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.439. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Dordrecht games / 29 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 44% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 33%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | FC OSS 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 70% | FC OSS 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 44% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Dordrecht 1.91 / FC OSS 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.096 / def 1.397 | FC OSS attack 0.819 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.65
FC OSS xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 14 March 2022 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Dordrecht 1 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Dordrecht vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 44% chance of winning, FC OSS a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Dordrecht and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and FC OSS in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. FC OSS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.82x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
44%
2.27
23%
4.42
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.56
1.65
FC OSS xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
5%
20.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.65 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 6W 8D 15L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 8W 7D 14L from 29 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.07 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (3W 6D 5L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 3D 8L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 2.28 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.31 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; FC OSS in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 6W 8D 15L in their last 29 games (0.90 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 8W 7D 14L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC OSS away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.07 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC OSS won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
3
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 5, FC OSS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Dordrecht 2-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 64%, FC OSS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Dordrecht) and 57% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 29% of games; FC OSS in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Dordrecht's games and 57% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Dordrecht's matches and 57% of FC OSS's.
Do Dordrecht and FC OSS tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out FC OSS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat FC OSS 1-0 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.91 xG and FC OSS 1.65 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC OSS landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.10 / defence 1.40 against FC OSS attack 0.82 / defence 1.38, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 44% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 33%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 79%, FC OSS 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.90 PPG, FC OSS 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.