Dordrecht 0-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Emmen at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Emmen are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 0, Emmen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Emmen trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 65% versus Emmen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 74% | Emmen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 0.97 xG and Emmen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.023 / defence 1.136 | Emmen attack 0.816 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.431. Emmen's defence strength of 0.743 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Dordrecht games / 34 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 27% | Draw 28% | Emmen 45%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Emmen 2.22. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 60% | Emmen 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 27% | Draw 28% | Emmen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Dordrecht 0.97 / Emmen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.023 / def 1.136 | Emmen attack 0.816 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: Emmen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Emmen xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Emmen kick off?
Dordrecht vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Dordrecht 0 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Dordrecht vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Emmen part of?
Dordrecht vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 27% chance of winning, Emmen a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dordrecht and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Record (1 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.02) and Emmen's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
27%
3.72
28%
3.51
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.29
1.33
Emmen xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
7%
13.99
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.4 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.33 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 8W 8D 18L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Emmen's form line: 23W 5D 6L from 34 games, 2.18 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 1.24 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dordrecht.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 10W 5D 2L from 17 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.71 scored and 0.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Emmen in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 8W 8D 18L in their last 34 games (0.94 PPG), while Emmen have gone 23W 5D 6L in their last 34 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.24 PPG; Emmen away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Emmen in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
1
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 5, Emmen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Emmen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 59%, Emmen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Dordrecht) and 35% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Emmen in 41%; Dordrecht have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 47% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Dordrecht's recent games and 35% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and Emmen tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Emmen in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Dordrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Dordrecht 0-1 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 0.97 xG and Emmen 1.33 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.02 / defence 1.14 against Emmen attack 0.82 / defence 0.74, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 27% | Draw 28% | Emmen 45%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 74%, Emmen 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Emmen's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.