Dordrecht 2-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Matchoholic Stadion plays host to Dordrecht versus Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 9 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Dordrecht (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht at Matchoholic Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Dordrecht are significantly better at Matchoholic Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Dordrecht, 1.30 for Den Bosch — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Dordrecht 0W, Den Bosch 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 65% versus Den Bosch 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 67% | Den Bosch 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.31 xG and Den Bosch 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.938 / defence 1.057 | Den Bosch attack 0.905 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.329. Data: 43 Dordrecht games / 43 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 38% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 36%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Den Bosch 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 60% | Den Bosch 30%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 38% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Dordrecht 1.31 / Den Bosch 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.938 / def 1.057 | Den Bosch attack 0.905 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Den Bosch xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Den Bosch kick off?
Dordrecht vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Dordrecht 2 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch part of?
Dordrecht vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 38% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dordrecht and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
Record (2 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and Den Bosch in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 0.94x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.91x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.78
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.58
1.27
Den Bosch xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.27 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 11W 10D 22L from 43 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 15W 5D 23L across 43 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.16 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 5W 4D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dordrecht are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.07 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 11W 10D 22L in their last 43 games (1.00 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 15W 5D 23L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Den Bosch away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.29 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 5-1 on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 6, Den Bosch have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Dordrecht 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 57%, Den Bosch 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Dordrecht) and 48% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 33% of games; Den Bosch in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 43% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Dordrecht's recent games and 48% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Den Bosch 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Den Bosch 2-1 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.31 xG and Den Bosch 1.27 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Den Bosch attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 38% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 36%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 67%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.00 PPG, Den Bosch 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.