Dordrecht 3-3 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion plays host to Dordrecht versus Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Dordrecht (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Den Bosch have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Dordrecht, 0.90 for Den Bosch — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 64% versus Den Bosch 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 64% | Den Bosch 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 0.91 xG and Den Bosch 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.584 / defence 1.132 | Den Bosch attack 0.723 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.347. Dordrecht's attack strength of 0.584 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Dordrecht games / 11 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 30% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 40%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Den Bosch 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 40% | Den Bosch 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 30% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Dordrecht 0.91 / Den Bosch 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.584 / def 1.132 | Den Bosch attack 0.723 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Den Bosch xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Den Bosch kick off?
Dordrecht vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Dordrecht 3 - 3 Den Bosch.
Where is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch part of?
Dordrecht vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 30% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dordrecht and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dordrecht and Den Bosch in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 0.58x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.72x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
30%
3.36
31%
3.28
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.01
1.10
Den Bosch xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.7 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.10 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 1W 3D 7L from 11 games, a 0.55 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 7L across 11 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Den Bosch by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dordrecht are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.00 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 4W 0D 7L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Den Bosch away?
Den Bosch's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 0.40 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 5-1 on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 6, Den Bosch have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Dordrecht 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 40%, Den Bosch 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Dordrecht and 40% for Den Bosch.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 60% of games; Den Bosch in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 40% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dordrecht's recent games and 40% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 12, as Dordrecht and Den Bosch drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 0.91 xG and Den Bosch 1.10 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.58 / defence 1.13 against Den Bosch attack 0.72 / defence 1.22, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 30% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 40%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 64%, Den Bosch 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.