Den Bosch 0-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates VVV Venlo at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 32 as Den Bosch welcome VVV Venlo to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 March 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 6W 0D 4L at Stadion De Vliert — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
VVV Venlo's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VVV Venlo — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 1 for VVV Venlo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with VVV Venlo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
VVV Venlo trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 42% versus VVV Venlo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 55% | VVV Venlo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.20 xG and VVV Venlo 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.876 / defence 1.233 | VVV Venlo attack 0.878 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.445. Data: 31 Den Bosch games / 31 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 29% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 45%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | VVV Venlo 2.22. VVV Venlo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VVV Venlo as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Den Bosch 40% | VVV Venlo 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Mar 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 29% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Den Bosch 1.20 / VVV Venlo 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.876 / def 1.233 | VVV Venlo attack 0.878 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.56
VVV Venlo xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 26 March 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Den Bosch 0 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo part of?
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 29% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Den Bosch and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
Record (1 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.88x the league average against VVV Venlo's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
29%
3.44
25%
3.93
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.77
1.56
VVV Venlo xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
6%
16.43
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.56 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 10W 3D 18L from 31 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 15L across 31 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.06 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 8W 0D 7L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Den Bosch are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 6W 1D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.29 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 10W 3D 18L in their last 31 games (1.06 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 12W 4D 15L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or VVV Venlo away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.60 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2023, when VVV Venlo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Den Bosch 0-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 40%, VVV Venlo 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Den Bosch) and 60% (VVV Venlo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 33%; Den Bosch have failed to score in 40% of games; VVV Venlo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 33% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Den Bosch's matches and 60% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Den Bosch and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Den Bosch's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and VVV Venlo finished level at 0-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.20 xG and VVV Venlo 1.56 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.2 short of their projected output. VVV Venlo landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.88 / defence 1.23 against VVV Venlo attack 0.88 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 29% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 45%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 55%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.06 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.