Den Bosch vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 39%, yet in-form Roda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Den Bosch vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Roda travel to De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 May 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Roda — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Roda are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 4 for Roda and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Roda trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 75% and Roda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 69% | Roda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.30 xG and Roda 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.046 / defence 1.151 | Roda attack 0.687 / defence 0.622. League average goals — home 1.997 / away 1.525. Roda's defence strength of 0.622 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Den Bosch games / 46 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 39% | Draw 27% | Roda 34%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Roda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Roda (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 90% | Roda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 39% | Draw 27% | Roda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Den Bosch 1.30 / Roda 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.046 / def 1.151 | Roda attack 0.687 / def 0.622 | league avg home 1.997 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Roda xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Roda kick off?
Den Bosch vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 7 May 2027 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Roda part of?
Den Bosch vs Roda is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 39% chance of winning, Roda a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Den Bosch and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Roda?
Record (10 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 4 | Roda 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and Roda in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
39%
2.58
27%
3.71
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.50
1.21
Roda xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.21 for Roda, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 16W 10D 22L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 18W 18D 12L from 48 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.21 PPG, Roda on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (10W 7D 7L).
On the road, Roda have gone 11W 9D 4L from 24 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.46 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Roda in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Roda in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 16W 10D 22L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Roda have gone 18W 18D 12L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.54 PPG; Roda away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
4
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Roda have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 79%, Roda at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Den Bosch and 58% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Den Bosch's games and 67% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Den Bosch's matches and 58% of Roda's.
Do Den Bosch and Roda tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Roda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.