Den Bosch 3-3 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host MVV at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Den Bosch at 1.00 PPG versus MVV's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, MVV in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Den Bosch have won 2, MVV 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with MVV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
MVV in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 50% versus MVV 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 60% | MVV 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.08 xG and MVV 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.944 / defence 1.111 | MVV attack 1.004 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.344. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Den Bosch games / 58 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 21% | MVV 28%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | MVV 3.57. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | MVV 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 21% | MVV 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Den Bosch 2.08 / MVV 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.944 / def 1.111 | MVV attack 1.004 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.50
MVV xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs MVV kick off?
Den Bosch vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs MVV?
Den Bosch 3 - 3 MVV.
Where is Den Bosch vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs MVV part of?
Den Bosch vs MVV is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 51% chance of winning, MVV a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Den Bosch and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV?
Record (3 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 0 | MVV 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and MVV in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. MVV (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.94x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
51%
1.96
21%
4.72
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.57
1.50
MVV xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
3%
28.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.50 for MVV, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 20W 6D 32L from 58 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 28L across 58 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.14 PPG, MVV on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 14W 1D 14L from 29 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 10W 2D 17L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.38 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and MVV in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 20W 6D 32L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while MVV have gone 22W 8D 28L in their last 58 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or MVV away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.48 PPG; MVV away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when MVV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Den Bosch
2
Draws
4
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 4, MVV have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-2 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 48%, MVV 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Den Bosch and 69% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 55% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Den Bosch's matches and 69% of MVV's.
Do Den Bosch and MVV tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, MVV in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and MVV share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and MVV finished level at 3-3 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.08 xG and MVV 1.50 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. MVV outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against MVV attack 1.00 / defence 1.42, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 51% | Draw 21% | MVV 28%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 60%, MVV 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.14 PPG, MVV 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.