Den Bosch 1-4 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as Den Bosch welcome Jong Utrecht to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Den Bosch have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong Utrecht in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 0 for Jong Utrecht and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Den Bosch winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 49% versus Jong Utrecht 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 60% | Jong Utrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.02 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.019 / defence 1.063 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.893 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.355. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Den Bosch games / 55 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 54% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 24%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Utrecht 4.17. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | Jong Utrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 6 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 54% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Den Bosch 2.02 / Jong Utrecht 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.019 / def 1.063 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.893 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Jong Utrecht xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 January 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Den Bosch 1 - 4 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 54% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.02x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
54%
1.84
21%
4.65
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.31
1.29
Jong Utrecht xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.65
21%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
3%
31.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.29 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 6D 30L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.91 PPG from 55 outings (14W 8D 33L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.15 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 13W 1D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.96 points per game from 27 outings (7W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.05 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 19W 6D 30L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 8D 33L in their last 55 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.48 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
3
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 48%, Jong Utrecht 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Den Bosch and 74% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Den Bosch's games and 70% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Den Bosch's matches and 74% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Utrecht run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Den Bosch 1-4 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.02 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.29 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jong Utrecht outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 54% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 24%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Jong Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 60%, Jong Utrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.15 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.