Den Bosch 2-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Den Bosch welcome Jong Utrecht to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 3W 0D 3L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jong Utrecht — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 42% versus Jong Utrecht 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 50% | Jong Utrecht 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.16 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.783 / defence 1.199 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.933 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.438. Den Bosch's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Den Bosch games / 12 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 28% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 48%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Jong Utrecht 2.08. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 33% | Jong Utrecht 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 28% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Den Bosch 1.16 / Jong Utrecht 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.783 / def 1.199 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.933 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Jong Utrecht xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Den Bosch 2 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 28% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.78x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
28%
3.63
25%
4.05
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.77
1.61
Jong Utrecht xG
3.63
28%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
6%
18.16
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.61 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 1D 7L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 3W 0D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Den Bosch are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.50 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
3
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 33%, Jong Utrecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Den Bosch) and 67% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 33%; Den Bosch have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 67% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Den Bosch's matches and 67% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong Utrecht 2-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.16 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.61 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.78 / defence 1.20 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 28% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 48%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 50%, Jong Utrecht 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.