Den Bosch 3-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 42%, yet in-form Jong AZ provide a compelling counter-argument — this Den Bosch vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Jong AZ travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch at Stadion De Vliert this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong AZ — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jong AZ are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Den Bosch, 0 for Jong AZ and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong AZ trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 48% versus Jong AZ 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 58% | Jong AZ 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.54 xG and Jong AZ 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.968 / defence 1.159 | Jong AZ attack 0.857 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.363. Data: 48 Den Bosch games / 48 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 34%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Jong AZ 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong AZ (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 60% | Jong AZ 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Den Bosch 1.54 / Jong AZ 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.968 / def 1.159 | Jong AZ attack 0.857 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Jong AZ xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Den Bosch 3 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 42% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Record (2 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (0.97) and Jong AZ's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
42%
2.40
25%
4.05
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.89
1.35
Jong AZ xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.35 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 17W 5D 26L from 48 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 24L across 48 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.17 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 11W 1D 12L from 24 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 6W 4D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.23 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 17W 5D 26L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 17W 7D 24L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong AZ away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.42 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
5
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Jong AZ have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 46%, Jong AZ 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Den Bosch) and 50% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 33% of games; Jong AZ in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 42% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Den Bosch's matches and 50% of Jong AZ's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong AZ 3-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.54 xG and Jong AZ 1.35 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Jong AZ attack 0.86 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 42% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 34%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, Jong AZ 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.17 PPG, Jong AZ 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.