Den Bosch 2-3 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Den Bosch at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 20 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 3.00 PPG across 2 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 0D 0L. Last five: W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Den Bosch's 3.00 PPG return is 3.00 points per game ahead of Jong Ajax's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.19 xG and Jong Ajax 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.134 / defence 0.975 | Jong Ajax attack 0.673 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 0.808 / away 1.525. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Den Bosch games / 2 Jong Ajax games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 40% | Draw 30% | Jong Ajax 30%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Jong Ajax 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 40% | Draw 30% | Jong Ajax 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Den Bosch 1.19 / Jong Ajax 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.134 / def 0.975 | Jong Ajax attack 0.673 / def 1.294 | league avg home 0.808 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Jong Ajax xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Den Bosch 2 - 3 Jong Ajax.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 40% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.13x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.67x) against Den Bosch's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.32
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.19
1.00
Jong Ajax xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.00 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Ajax's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Den Bosch are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Ajax.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Den Bosch are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Jong Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Den Bosch or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
2
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong Ajax 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 50% of Jong Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Den Bosch's recent games and 50% of Jong Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Ajax defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Den Bosch 2-3 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.19 xG and Jong Ajax 1.00 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Jong Ajax attack 0.67 / defence 1.29, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 40% | Draw 30% | Jong Ajax 30%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 0%, Jong Ajax 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Den Bosch shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.