Den Bosch 1-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host FC Volendam at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadion De Vliert — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Den Bosch at 1.70 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 1 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 40% versus FC Volendam 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 54% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.23 xG and FC Volendam 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.893 / defence 1.030 | FC Volendam attack 0.833 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.452. Data: 35 Den Bosch games / 35 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 36% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 37%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | FC Volendam 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 30% | FC Volendam 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 36% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Den Bosch 1.23 / FC Volendam 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.893 / def 1.030 | FC Volendam attack 0.833 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC Volendam xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs FC Volendam kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Den Bosch 1 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam part of?
Den Bosch vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 36% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Den Bosch and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and FC Volendam in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.66
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.47
1.25
FC Volendam xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.25 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 35 games, going 13W 4D 18L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 2.03 PPG from 35 outings (20W 11D 4L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 9W 1D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Den Bosch are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 1.76 points per game from 17 outings (7W 9D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.14 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 71%.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 4D 18L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 20W 11D 4L in their last 35 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.65 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2021, when FC Volendam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
0
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Den Bosch 3-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC Volendam see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 35%, FC Volendam 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Den Bosch) and 47% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 35%; Den Bosch have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 65% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Den Bosch's recent games and 47% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Den Bosch 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Den Bosch 1-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.23 xG and FC Volendam 1.25 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against FC Volendam attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 36% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 37%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 54%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.