Den Bosch 3-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and Dordrecht meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 3.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Den Bosch's home record at Stadion De Vliert: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Dordrecht have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Den Bosch, 1 for Dordrecht and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 48% versus Dordrecht 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 62% | Dordrecht 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.77 xG and Dordrecht 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.953 / defence 1.103 | Dordrecht attack 0.818 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.311. Data: 66 Den Bosch games / 66 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 25%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Dordrecht 4.00. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | Dordrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Den Bosch 1.77 / Dordrecht 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.953 / def 1.103 | Dordrecht attack 0.818 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Dordrecht xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Dordrecht kick off?
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Den Bosch 3 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Den Bosch vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Dordrecht part of?
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 51% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Den Bosch and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Dordrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and Dordrecht in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 3.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.95x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.82x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.28
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.95
1.18
Dordrecht xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
4%
23.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.18 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Den Bosch come into this having played 66 games, going 22W 8D 36L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 0.98 PPG from 66 outings (17W 14D 35L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Den Bosch against 0.98 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Den Bosch's home form reads 16W 3D 14L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Den Bosch are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.82 points per game from 33 outings (7W 6D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Den Bosch are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.27 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 22W 8D 36L in their last 66 games (1.12 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 17W 14D 35L in their last 66 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Dordrecht away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.55 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 5-1 on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
2
Draws
6
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Dordrecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Dordrecht 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 48%, Dordrecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Den Bosch and 70% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Den Bosch's games and 67% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Den Bosch's matches and 70% of Dordrecht's.
Do Den Bosch and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Dordrecht 3-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.77 xG and Dordrecht 1.18 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Dordrecht attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 51% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 25%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 62%, Dordrecht 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.12 PPG, Dordrecht 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.