Den Bosch 2-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and De Graafschap meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's home record at Stadion De Vliert: 4W 0D 3L from 7 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.17 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
De Graafschap arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 46% versus De Graafschap 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 54% | De Graafschap 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.00 xG and De Graafschap 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.840 / defence 1.153 | De Graafschap attack 1.063 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.447. Data: 13 Den Bosch games / 13 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 21% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 56%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 1.79. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 43% | De Graafschap 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 21% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Den Bosch 1.00 / De Graafschap 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.840 / def 1.153 | De Graafschap attack 1.063 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.77
De Graafschap xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs De Graafschap kick off?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Den Bosch 2 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap part of?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 21% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Den Bosch and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.06x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
21%
4.74
23%
4.29
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.77
1.77
De Graafschap xG
4.74
21%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
4%
27.92
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.77 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 5W 1D 7L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 8W 2D 3L from 13 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 2.00 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.62 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 5W 1D 7L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.50 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 27 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
3
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, De Graafschap have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2026, when De Graafschap 1-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 50%, De Graafschap 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Den Bosch and 83% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 33%; Den Bosch have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Den Bosch's games and 67% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Den Bosch's matches and 83% of De Graafschap's.
Do Den Bosch and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat De Graafschap 2-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.00 xG and De Graafschap 1.77 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against De Graafschap attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 21% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 56%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 54%, De Graafschap 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.