De Graafschap 0-3 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Willem II meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 December 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Willem II have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Willem II in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Willem II — key trading statistics (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 61% versus Willem II 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 55% | Willem II 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.49 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.958 / defence 0.930 | Willem II attack 1.032 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.364. Data: 55 De Graafschap games / 17 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 41% | Draw 25% | Willem II 33%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Willem II 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 16 Dec 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 41% | Draw 25% | Willem II 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG De Graafschap 1.49 / Willem II 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.958 / def 0.930 | Willem II attack 1.032 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Willem II xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Willem II kick off?
De Graafschap vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 December 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Willem II?
De Graafschap 0 - 3 Willem II.
Where is De Graafschap vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Willem II part of?
De Graafschap vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 41% chance of winning, Willem II a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both De Graafschap and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and Willem II in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.96) and Willem II's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.03x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
41%
2.41
25%
3.97
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.79
1.31
Willem II xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.31 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 18W 15D 18L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 15W 12D 24L from 51 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.12 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (7W 11D 8L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 5W 7D 14L from 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.10 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Willem II in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 18W 15D 18L in their last 51 games (1.35 PPG), while Willem II have gone 15W 12D 24L in their last 51 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Willem II away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.23 PPG; Willem II away: 0.85 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Willem II in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 0-3 on 16 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
1
Draws
4
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, Willem II have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Willem II 0-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 65%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (De Graafschap) and 62% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Willem II in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of De Graafschap's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of De Graafschap's recent games and 62% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Willem II tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Willem II in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 0-3 hammering of De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat De Graafschap 0-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.49 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Willem II attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 41% | Draw 25% | Willem II 33%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 55%, Willem II 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.35 PPG, Willem II 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.