De Graafschap 1-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 35%, yet in-form De Graafschap provide a compelling counter-argument — this De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 21 as De Graafschap welcome VVV Venlo to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 January 2022 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion De Vijverberg this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vijverberg this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
On current form, De Graafschap have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 1, VVV Venlo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 50% versus VVV Venlo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 65% | VVV Venlo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 0.98 xG and VVV Venlo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.775 / defence 1.063 | VVV Venlo attack 0.620 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.540. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 De Graafschap games / 20 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 34% | Draw 31% | VVV Venlo 35%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | VVV Venlo 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VVV Venlo are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 40% | VVV Venlo 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 34% | Draw 31% | VVV Venlo 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG De Graafschap 0.98 / VVV Venlo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.775 / def 1.063 | VVV Venlo attack 0.620 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.02
VVV Venlo xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kick off?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
De Graafschap 1 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo part of?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 34% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both De Graafschap and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
34%
2.97
31%
3.23
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.00
1.02
VVV Venlo xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.02 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 11W 3D 6L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo's form line: 7W 2D 11L from 20 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VVV Venlo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L). That actually lags their 1.80 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.15 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 11W 3D 6L in their last 20 games (1.80 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 7W 2D 11L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or VVV Venlo away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.33 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 0.78 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
1
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 44%, VVV Venlo 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (De Graafschap) and 56% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 33% of games; VVV Venlo in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 44% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of De Graafschap's recent games and 56% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VVV Venlo edge out De Graafschap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat De Graafschap 1-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 0.98 xG and VVV Venlo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. VVV Venlo outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against VVV Venlo attack 0.62 / defence 1.10, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 34% | Draw 31% | VVV Venlo 35%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 65%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with VVV Venlo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.