De Graafschap 1-3 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees MVV travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 March 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion De Vijverberg.
MVV — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
MVV's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
De Graafschap are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 0 for MVV and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
MVV trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 40% versus MVV 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 53% | MVV 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.09 xG and MVV 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.605 / defence 0.944 | MVV attack 0.694 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.463. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.605 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 De Graafschap games / 30 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 38% | Draw 31% | MVV 31%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | MVV 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 40% | MVV 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 38% | Draw 31% | MVV 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG De Graafschap 1.09 / MVV 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.605 / def 0.944 | MVV attack 0.694 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.96
MVV xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs MVV kick off?
De Graafschap vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs MVV?
De Graafschap 1 - 3 MVV.
Where is De Graafschap vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs MVV part of?
De Graafschap vs MVV is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 38% chance of winning, MVV a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both De Graafschap and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | MVV 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. MVV (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.60) and MVV's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.22
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.05
0.96
MVV xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.96 for MVV, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 13W 8D 9L from 30 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 20L across 30 games — 0.87 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over MVV heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 4W 6D 5L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 4W 0D 11L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.03 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 13W 8D 9L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while MVV have gone 8W 2D 20L in their last 30 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or MVV away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.20 PPG; MVV away: 0.80 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or MVV been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, MVV in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and MVV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
4
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, MVV have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and MVV?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 40%, MVV 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (De Graafschap) and 60% (MVV).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 40% of games; MVV in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 47% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of De Graafschap's recent games and 60% of MVV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and MVV tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, MVV in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat De Graafschap 1-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.09 xG and MVV 0.96 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. MVV outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.60 / defence 0.94 against MVV attack 0.69 / defence 1.42, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 38% | Draw 31% | MVV 31%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual MVV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 53%, MVV 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
MVV's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with MVV winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.