De Graafschap 2-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Jong Utrecht travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 0.60 (Jong Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 0 for Jong Utrecht and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 58% versus Jong Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 54% | Jong Utrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.73 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.805 / defence 0.941 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.908 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.363. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 De Graafschap games / 48 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 51% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 26%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Utrecht 3.85. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 90% | Jong Utrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 51% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG De Graafschap 1.73 / Jong Utrecht 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.805 / def 0.941 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.908 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Jong Utrecht xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 51% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.81x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.22
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.90
1.16
Jong Utrecht xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
5%
22.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.16 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 16W 14D 18L from 48 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 28L across 48 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.29 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 5W 11D 8L from 24 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 6W 6D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.06 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 16W 14D 18L in their last 48 games (1.29 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 8D 28L in their last 48 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Utrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.08 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.00 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
5
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when De Graafschap 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 62%, Jong Utrecht at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (De Graafschap) and 71% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of De Graafschap's games and 71% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of De Graafschap's matches and 71% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong Utrecht 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.73 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.16 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong Utrecht landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.81 / defence 0.94 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 51% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 26%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 54%, Jong Utrecht 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.29 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.