De Graafschap 2-2 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Jong Utrecht travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 4W 0D 3L from 7 outings — a 1.71 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.43 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 0D 2L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 4W 2D 1L from 7 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 0.71. Defensively, 0.71 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 2W 2D 0L from 4 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.71 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 2.00 (Jong Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 43% versus Jong Utrecht 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 71% | Jong Utrecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.09 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.889 / defence 1.152 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.996 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.442. Data: 7 De Graafschap games / 7 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 25% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 51%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Utrecht 1.96. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 25% | Jong Utrecht 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 25% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG De Graafschap 1.09 / Jong Utrecht 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.889 / def 1.152 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.996 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Jong Utrecht xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap 2 - 2 Jong Utrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 25% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-0D-3L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 0.71 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.89x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
25%
4.00
24%
4.10
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.75
1.66
Jong Utrecht xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
5%
20.91
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.66 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 4W 0D 3L from 7 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 1L across 7 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.71 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.71 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Jong Utrecht in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Jong Utrecht's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.50 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 2.00 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
5
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when De Graafschap 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 25%, Jong Utrecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for De Graafschap and 50% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 50%; De Graafschap have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 50% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of De Graafschap's matches and 50% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht finished level at 2-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.09 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.66 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Jong Utrecht attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 25% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 51%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 71%, Jong Utrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.71 PPG, Jong Utrecht 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.