De Graafschap 3-0 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Ajax make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vijverberg, De Graafschap have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for De Graafschap, 1.10 for Jong Ajax — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong Ajax in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: De Graafschap 0W, Jong Ajax 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 1–5 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 58% and Jong Ajax 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 56% | Jong Ajax 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.61 xG and Jong Ajax 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.896 / defence 1.038 | Jong Ajax attack 1.098 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.371. Data: 57 De Graafschap games / 57 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 37%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Ajax 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | Jong Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG De Graafschap 1.61 / Jong Ajax 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.896 / def 1.038 | Jong Ajax attack 1.098 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Jong Ajax xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
De Graafschap 3 - 0 Jong Ajax.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 39% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
Record (3 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.90x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (1.10x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
39%
2.54
24%
4.25
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.18
1.56
Jong Ajax xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.12
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.56 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 57 games, going 20W 16D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.51 PPG from 57 outings (23W 17D 17L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.51 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 7W 11D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 1.18 points per game from 28 outings (8W 9D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.04 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 79%.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 23W 17D 17L in their last 57 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Ajax away?
Jong Ajax's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.14 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.18 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 5-1 on 22 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
2
Draws
4
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for De Graafschap, 75% for Jong Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (De Graafschap) and 61% (Jong Ajax).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of De Graafschap's games and 75% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of De Graafschap's recent games and 61% of Jong Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong Ajax 3-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.61 xG and Jong Ajax 1.56 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Jong Ajax attack 1.10 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 39% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 37%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 56%, Jong Ajax 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.33 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.