De Graafschap 0-3 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 40%, yet in-form De Graafschap provide a compelling counter-argument — this De Graafschap vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as De Graafschap welcome FC Volendam to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 outings — a 2.25 PPG return. Last five: L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 1W 2D 1L from 4 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.25 vs 1.25. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 25% versus FC Volendam 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 50% | FC Volendam 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.25 xG and FC Volendam 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.857 / defence 1.108 | FC Volendam attack 0.887 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.386. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 De Graafschap games / 4 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 34% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 40%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | FC Volendam 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (2.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 25% | FC Volendam 75%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 34% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG De Graafschap 1.25 / FC Volendam 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.857 / def 1.108 | FC Volendam attack 0.887 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.36
FC Volendam xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Volendam kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
De Graafschap 0 - 3 FC Volendam.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 34% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and FC Volendam in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.81
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.61
1.36
FC Volendam xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.36 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 1L across 4 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.25 scored and 1.50 conceded. FC Volendam's attacking output running into De Graafschap's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 75%.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have De Graafschap or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2021, when FC Volendam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
0
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2024, when FC Volendam 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 25%, FC Volendam 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for De Graafschap and 75% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 75% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of De Graafschap's matches and 75% of FC Volendam's.
Do De Graafschap and FC Volendam tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 0-3 hammering of De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat De Graafschap 0-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.25 xG and FC Volendam 1.36 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Volendam outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.86 / defence 1.11 against FC Volendam attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 34% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 40%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 50%, FC Volendam 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Volendam's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with FC Volendam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.