De Graafschap 1-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as De Graafschap welcome FC Eindhoven to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 December 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion De Vijverberg this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.30 (FC Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Eindhoven in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for FC Eindhoven and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2022, ended 1–3 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 57% versus FC Eindhoven 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 55% | FC Eindhoven 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.66 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.982 / defence 0.869 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.884 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.347. Data: 54 De Graafschap games / 54 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 24%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | FC Eindhoven 4.17. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | FC Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG De Graafschap 1.66 / FC Eindhoven 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.982 / def 0.869 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.884 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC Eindhoven xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap 1 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 52% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.09
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.69
1.04
FC Eindhoven xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.04 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 21W 15D 20L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 29W 13D 14L from 56 games, 1.79 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against De Graafschap.
Venue Form
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (8W 11D 9L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 11W 7D 10L from 28 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.79 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 21W 15D 20L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 29W 13D 14L in their last 56 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.25 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.43 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 57%, FC Eindhoven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (De Graafschap) and 46% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of De Graafschap's recent games and 46% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat De Graafschap 1-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.66 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.04 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 52% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 24%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 55%, FC Eindhoven 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.