De Graafschap 1-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 41%, yet in-form Dordrecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this De Graafschap vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 26 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dordrecht are 0.70 PPG clear of De Graafschap in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 56% versus Dordrecht 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 56% | Dordrecht 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.38 xG and Dordrecht 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.843 / defence 1.048 | Dordrecht attack 0.792 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.434. Data: 41 De Graafschap games / 41 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 41% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Dordrecht 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Dordrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 41% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG De Graafschap 1.38 / Dordrecht 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.843 / def 1.048 | Dordrecht attack 0.792 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Dordrecht xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
De Graafschap 1 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 41% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both De Graafschap and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.84) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.79x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.78
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.57
1.19
Dordrecht xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.19 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 12D 15L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.02 PPG from 41 outings (11W 9D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.02 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 4W 9D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (4W 3D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.34 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 14W 12D 15L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 11W 9D 21L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Dordrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.05 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.75 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
5
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Dordrecht have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for De Graafschap, 70% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 45% for De Graafschap and 85% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of De Graafschap's games and 70% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of De Graafschap's matches and 85% of Dordrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Dordrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 4, as De Graafschap and Dordrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.38 xG and Dordrecht 1.19 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Dordrecht attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 41% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 56%, Dordrecht 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.32 PPG, Dordrecht 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.