De Graafschap 2-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 11 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vijverberg this season.
Dordrecht have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward De Graafschap. A 0.60 PPG lead over Dordrecht (1.70 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 44% versus Dordrecht 72%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 60% | Dordrecht 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.49 xG and Dordrecht 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.744 / defence 1.070 | Dordrecht attack 0.983 / defence 1.733. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.419. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.733 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 De Graafschap games / 25 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 38% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 38%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Dordrecht 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Dordrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 38% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG De Graafschap 1.49 / Dordrecht 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.744 / def 1.070 | Dordrecht attack 0.983 / def 1.733 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Dordrecht xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
De Graafschap 2 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 38% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both De Graafschap and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.74) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.73), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.98x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
38%
2.66
24%
4.10
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.98
1.49
Dordrecht xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.49 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 25 games, going 13W 5D 7L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 0.84 PPG from 25 outings (5W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 4W 3D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.76 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.58 points per game from 12 outings (2W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.40 scored and 2.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 72%.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 13W 5D 7L in their last 25 games (1.76 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 5W 6D 14L in their last 25 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Dordrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.25 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.58 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
5
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Dordrecht have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 42%, Dordrecht 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for De Graafschap and 100% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of De Graafschap's games and 83% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of De Graafschap's matches and 100% of Dordrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Dordrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 26, as De Graafschap and Dordrecht drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.49 xG and Dordrecht 1.49 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.74 / defence 1.07 against Dordrecht attack 0.98 / defence 1.73, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 38% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 38%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Dordrecht 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.