De Graafschap 1-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vijverberg plays host to De Graafschap versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 16 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 0W 7D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for De Graafschap, 1.00 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Almere City FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 58% versus Almere City FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 53% | Almere City FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.61 xG and Almere City FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.741 / defence 0.978 | Almere City FC attack 0.848 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.337. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 De Graafschap games / 45 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 49% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 26%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Almere City FC 3.85. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 49% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG De Graafschap 1.61 / Almere City FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.741 / def 0.978 | Almere City FC attack 0.848 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Almere City FC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Almere City FC kick off?
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
De Graafschap 1 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC part of?
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 49% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both De Graafschap and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and Almere City FC in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.85x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.90
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.72
1.11
Almere City FC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
5%
19.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.11 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 15W 14D 16L from 45 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 23L across 45 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.07 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 4W 11D 7L from 22 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.44 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 13W 9D 23L in their last 45 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Almere City FC away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.05 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
From 8 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Almere City FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when De Graafschap 2-2 Almere City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for De Graafschap, 68% for Almere City FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (De Graafschap) and 77% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of De Graafschap's games and 68% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of De Graafschap's matches and 77% of Almere City FC's.
Do De Graafschap and Almere City FC tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat De Graafschap 1-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.61 xG and Almere City FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.74 / defence 0.98 against Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 49% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 26%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 53%, Almere City FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.31 PPG, Almere City FC 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.