Almere City FC vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Friday 9 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waalwijk have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Almere City FC, 1.50 for Waalwijk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Waalwijk in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Almere City FC 1W, Waalwijk 3W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 63% and Waalwijk 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 71% | Waalwijk 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.17 xG and Waalwijk 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.829 / defence 0.743 | Waalwijk attack 0.963 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.933 / away 1.581. Waalwijk's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Almere City FC games / 45 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 37% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 35%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Waalwijk 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 60% | Waalwijk 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 37% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Almere City FC 1.17 / Waalwijk 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.829 / def 0.743 | Waalwijk attack 0.963 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.933 / away 1.581 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Waalwijk xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Waalwijk kick off?
Almere City FC vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 9 April 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk part of?
Almere City FC vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 37% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Almere City FC and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and Waalwijk in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.83x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.96x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.53
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.30
1.13
Waalwijk xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.13 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 25W 6D 18L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 19W 17D 13L from 49 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.51 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.88 PPG from 24 outings (14W 3D 7L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 8W 10D 6L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.88 scored and 1.47 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 78%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 25W 6D 18L in their last 49 games (1.65 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 19W 17D 13L in their last 49 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Waalwijk away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.88 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won 1-4 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, Waalwijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Almere City FC 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 54%, Waalwijk 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Almere City FC and 58% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Almere City FC's games and 75% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Almere City FC's matches and 58% of Waalwijk's.
Do Almere City FC and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.