Almere City FC 0-4 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Roda travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 January 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Roda are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Almere City FC, 0 for Roda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 4–3 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Roda in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 76% and Roda 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 71% | Roda 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.40 xG and Roda 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.041 / defence 1.425 | Roda attack 1.043 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.543. Data: 21 Almere City FC games / 21 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 23% | Draw 20% | Roda 58%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 4.35 | Draw 5.00 | Roda 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Roda (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 2.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 70% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 23% | Draw 20% | Roda 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Almere City FC 1.40 / Roda 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.041 / def 1.425 | Roda attack 1.043 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.543 • Poisson stance: Roda (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
2.29
Roda xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Roda kick off?
Almere City FC vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Roda?
Almere City FC 0 - 4 Roda.
Where is Almere City FC vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Roda part of?
Almere City FC vs Roda is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 23% chance of winning, Roda a 58% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Almere City FC and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 0 | Roda 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and Roda in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 2.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
23%
4.41
20%
5.05
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.69
2.29
Roda xG
4.41
23%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
10%
9.90
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
2%
43.63
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Almere City FC and 2.29 for Roda, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 5D 12L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 2W 2D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.80 points per game from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.86 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Roda in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Roda in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 4W 5D 12L in their last 21 games (0.81 PPG), while Roda have gone 9W 7D 5L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.80 PPG; Roda away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Roda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Roda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
0
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 3, Roda have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Almere City FC 1-2 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Almere City FC at 70%, Roda at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Almere City FC and 70% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Almere City FC's games and 70% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Almere City FC's matches and 70% of Roda's.
Do Almere City FC and Roda tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Roda in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Almere City FC 0-4 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.40 xG and Roda 2.29 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Roda outscored their 2.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.43 against Roda attack 1.04 / defence 1.16, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 23% | Draw 20% | Roda 58%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 71%, Roda 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.