Almere City FC 2-4 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Almere City FC and Jong Ajax meet at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 2W 2D 2L across 6 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 1W 0D 2L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.33 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.00 for Jong Ajax. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 83% of their games, Jong Ajax in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 83% and Jong Ajax 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 67% | Jong Ajax 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.06 xG and Jong Ajax 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.096 / defence 0.973 | Jong Ajax attack 0.800 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.436. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Almere City FC games / 6 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 59% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 20%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Ajax 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 83% | Jong Ajax 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 59% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Almere City FC 2.06 / Jong Ajax 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.096 / def 0.973 | Jong Ajax attack 0.800 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Jong Ajax xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Almere City FC 2 - 4 Jong Ajax.
Where is Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax part of?
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 59% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Almere City FC and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and Jong Ajax in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Almere City FC's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.80x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.78
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.18
1.12
Jong Ajax xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
13%
7.84
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
3%
39.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.12 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 2D 2L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.00 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.00 scored and 2.33 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Jong Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Almere City FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
0
Draws
2
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong Ajax?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Jong Ajax 0-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Jong Ajax?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Almere City FC, 83% for Jong Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Almere City FC and 83% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Almere City FC's games and 83% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Almere City FC's matches and 83% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Almere City FC and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Almere City FC 2-4 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.06 xG and Jong Ajax 1.12 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.97 against Jong Ajax attack 0.80 / defence 1.37, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 59% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 20%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Jong Ajax win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 67%, Jong Ajax 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.33 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.