Almere City FC 1-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 38%, yet in-form FC Eindhoven provide a compelling counter-argument — this Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 8 as Almere City FC welcome FC Eindhoven to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Almere City FC are significantly better at Yanmar Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. FC Eindhoven's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Almere City FC's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Almere City FC, 1 for FC Eindhoven and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 52% versus FC Eindhoven 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 68% | FC Eindhoven 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.20 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.964 / defence 0.774 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.105 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.327. FC Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Almere City FC games / 44 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 38% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 34%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | FC Eindhoven 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Eindhoven (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 10% | FC Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 38% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Almere City FC 1.20 / FC Eindhoven 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.964 / def 0.774 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.105 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
FC Eindhoven xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 38% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven?
Record (2 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
38%
2.66
28%
3.56
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.13
FC Eindhoven xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.13 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 13W 8D 23L from 44 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 25W 9D 10L across 44 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Eindhoven by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 7W 4D 11L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 10W 6D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.86 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 13W 8D 23L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 25W 9D 10L in their last 44 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.14 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2025, when Almere City FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
1
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FC Eindhoven 3-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 36%, FC Eindhoven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Almere City FC) and 46% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 32%; Almere City FC have failed to score in 32% of games; FC Eindhoven in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Almere City FC's recent games and 46% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.20 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.13 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.77 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.10 / defence 0.76, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 38% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 34%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 68%, FC Eindhoven 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.