ADO Den Haag 2-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and Roda meet at Cars Jeans Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games (1.86 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Cars Jeans Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Roda have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.14 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Roda have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.57 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.86 vs 1.57 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Roda in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Roda — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 57% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 71% | Roda 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.87 xG and Roda 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.174 / defence 1.142 | Roda attack 1.227 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.442. Roda have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 ADO Den Haag games / 7 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 37% | Draw 21% | Roda 42%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.70 | Draw 4.76 | Roda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 67% | Roda 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cars Jeans Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 37% | Draw 21% | Roda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.87 / Roda 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.174 / def 1.142 | Roda attack 1.227 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Roda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Roda xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Roda kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
ADO Den Haag 2 - 0 Roda.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Roda part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Roda is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 37% chance of winning, Roda a 42% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Roda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Roda in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.57 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.17) and Roda's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.23x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
37%
2.74
21%
4.77
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.89
2.02
Roda xG
2.74
37%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.75
Clean Sheet
13%
7.55
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
5%
20.65
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 2.02 for Roda, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
ADO Den Haag come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 1.57 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
ADO Den Haag's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — Roda travel well.
Attack vs Defence
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 2.14 scored and 1.57 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Roda in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Roda in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Roda have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.00 PPG; Roda away: 2.33 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Roda in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
ADO Den Haag have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 5-0 on 21 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
ADO Den Haag
3
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 4, Roda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Roda 0-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Roda?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for ADO Den Haag, 67% for Roda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for ADO Den Haag and 100% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Roda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ADO Den Haag's games and 67% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 100% of Roda's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Roda tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Roda in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Roda 2-0 at Cars Jeans Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.87 xG and Roda 2.02 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.17 / defence 1.14 against Roda attack 1.23 / defence 1.20, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 37% | Draw 21% | Roda 42%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 71%, Roda 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.86 PPG, Roda 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.