ADO Den Haag 3-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag host PEC Zwolle at Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 3W 4D 3L at Bingoal Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PEC Zwolle — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for ADO Den Haag, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
ADO Den Haag trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
PEC Zwolle trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 60% versus PEC Zwolle 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 59% | PEC Zwolle 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 0.84 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.804 / defence 0.954 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.238 / defence 0.620. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.247. PEC Zwolle's defence strength of 0.620 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PEC Zwolle have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 ADO Den Haag games / 24 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 22% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 52%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | PEC Zwolle 1.92. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: ADO Den Haag 70% | PEC Zwolle 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 22% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG ADO Den Haag 0.84 / PEC Zwolle 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.804 / def 0.954 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.238 / def 0.620 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.47
PEC Zwolle xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle?
ADO Den Haag 3 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle part of?
ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 22% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 0.80x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
22%
4.64
26%
3.78
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
2.32
1.47
PEC Zwolle xG
4.64
22%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
5%
20.23
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 14.5 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.47 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 27W 15D 16L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 25W 9D 24L from 58 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ADO Den Haag on 1.66 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 1.82 PPG from 28 outings (14W 9D 5L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 2D 13L from 28 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.47 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 27W 15D 16L in their last 58 games (1.66 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 25W 9D 24L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or PEC Zwolle away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.82 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
ADO Den Haag
0
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2023, when ADO Den Haag 3-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 68%, PEC Zwolle 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (ADO Den Haag) and 50% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 36%; PEC Zwolle in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 29% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 50% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat PEC Zwolle 3-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 0.84 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.47 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.80 / defence 0.95 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.24 / defence 0.62, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 22% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 52%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a ADO Den Haag win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 59%, PEC Zwolle 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.66 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.