ADO Den Haag 4-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 20 as ADO Den Haag welcome NAC Breda to Cars Jeans Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's home record at Cars Jeans Stadion: 7W 0D 2L from 9 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — ADO Den Haag at 2.20 PPG versus NAC Breda's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, ADO Den Haag have won 0, NAC Breda 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 53% versus NAC Breda 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 58% | NAC Breda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.85 xG and NAC Breda 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.405 / defence 1.049 | NAC Breda attack 0.870 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.566. ADO Den Haag carry an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 19 ADO Den Haag games / 19 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 47% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 30%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | NAC Breda 3.33. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: ADO Den Haag 56% | NAC Breda 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Cars Jeans Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 47% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.85 / NAC Breda 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.405 / def 1.049 | NAC Breda attack 0.870 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.566 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.43
NAC Breda xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 December 2021 at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
ADO Den Haag 4 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda part of?
ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 47% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): ADO Den Haag 0W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.41) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.42
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.28
1.43
NAC Breda xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
5%
21.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.43 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 13W 2D 4L from 19 games, a 2.16 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 6L across 19 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NAC Breda heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 7W 0D 2L from 9 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.63 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 13W 2D 4L in their last 19 games (2.16 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or NAC Breda away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.33 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.89 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when NAC Breda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 6, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 56%, NAC Breda 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (ADO Den Haag) and 44% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; NAC Breda in 33%; NAC Breda in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 33% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of ADO Den Haag's recent games and 44% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 4-1 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat NAC Breda 4-1 at Cars Jeans Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.85 xG and NAC Breda 1.43 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.41 / defence 1.05 against NAC Breda attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 47% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 30%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 58%, NAC Breda 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
NAC Breda's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.