ADO Den Haag 3-2 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ meet at Cars Jeans Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag at Cars Jeans Stadion this season: 6W 0D 2L from 8 home games — 2.25 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.38 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong AZ have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. ADO Den Haag's 2.20 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Jong AZ's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 50% versus Jong AZ 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 56% | Jong AZ 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.82 xG and Jong AZ 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.329 / defence 0.959 | Jong AZ attack 0.567 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.549. ADO Den Haag carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 ADO Den Haag games / 18 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 60% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 17%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Jong AZ 5.88. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 50% | Jong AZ 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Cars Jeans Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 60% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.82 / Jong AZ 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.329 / def 0.959 | Jong AZ attack 0.567 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Jong AZ xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
ADO Den Haag 3 - 2 Jong AZ.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 60% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 1.33x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.57x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.43
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
2.66
0.84
Jong AZ xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
3%
36.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.7 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 0.84 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 12W 2D 4L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ's form line: 6W 3D 9L from 18 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong AZ.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 2.25 PPG from 8 outings (6W 0D 2L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 0.78 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 12W 2D 4L in their last 18 games (2.11 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Jong AZ away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.25 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.88 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won 0-4 on 3 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 6, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when ADO Den Haag 1-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 50%, Jong AZ 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (ADO Den Haag) and 38% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jong AZ in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 38% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ADO Den Haag's recent games and 38% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Jong AZ 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Jong AZ 3-2 at Cars Jeans Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.82 xG and Jong AZ 0.84 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.33 / defence 0.96 against Jong AZ attack 0.57 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 60% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 17%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 56%, Jong AZ 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.