ADO Den Haag 5-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag host Dordrecht at Cars Jeans Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 2L across 7 games at Cars Jeans Stadion this term (2.14 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dordrecht — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, ADO Den Haag have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 44% versus Dordrecht 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 50% | Dordrecht 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.43 xG and Dordrecht 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.141 / defence 0.957 | Dordrecht attack 0.739 / defence 1.745. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.548. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.745 — this is suppressing ADO Den Haag's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 ADO Den Haag games / 16 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 67% | Draw 18% | Dordrecht 15%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Dordrecht 6.67. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 43% | Dordrecht 88% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Cars Jeans Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 67% | Draw 18% | Dordrecht 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 61% | xG ADO Den Haag 2.43 / Dordrecht 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.141 / def 0.957 | Dordrecht attack 0.739 / def 1.745 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Dordrecht xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht?
ADO Den Haag 5 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 67% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Dordrecht in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.14) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.75), the model arrives at 2.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
67%
1.50
18%
5.61
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.52
1.09
Dordrecht xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
9%
11.34
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
1%
73.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.09 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 10W 2D 4L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht's form line: 2W 4D 10L from 16 games, 0.62 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 1.38 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dordrecht.
Venue Form
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (5W 0D 2L).
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 0W 1D 6L from 7 away games — 0.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dordrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.12 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 69%.
Defensively: ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 10W 2D 4L in their last 16 games (2.00 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 2W 4D 10L in their last 16 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Dordrecht away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.14 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.14 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2021, when ADO Den Haag won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
ADO Den Haag
4
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 4, Dordrecht have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Dordrecht?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 43%, Dordrecht 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for ADO Den Haag and 100% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of ADO Den Haag's games and 86% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 100% of Dordrecht's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Dordrecht tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Dordrecht 5-1 at Cars Jeans Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.43 xG and Dordrecht 1.09 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.14 / defence 0.96 against Dordrecht attack 0.74 / defence 1.75, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 67% | Draw 18% | Dordrecht 15%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 50%, Dordrecht 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.