ADO Den Haag 0-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as ADO Den Haag welcome Den Bosch to Bingoal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
ADO Den Haag at Bingoal Stadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (ADO Den Haag) versus 1.70 (Den Bosch). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for ADO Den Haag, 0 for Den Bosch and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 59% versus Den Bosch 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 59% | Den Bosch 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.65 xG and Den Bosch 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.019 / defence 0.946 | Den Bosch attack 0.890 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.366. Data: 39 ADO Den Haag games / 39 Den Bosch games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 49% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 27%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Den Bosch 3.70. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 90% | Den Bosch 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 49% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.65 / Den Bosch 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.019 / def 0.946 | Den Bosch attack 0.890 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Den Bosch xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch?
ADO Den Haag 0 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 49% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch?
Record (2 meetings): ADO Den Haag 2W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.02) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.09
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
2.79
1.15
Den Bosch xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
5%
19.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.15 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 23W 8D 8L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch's form line: 14W 5D 20L from 39 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
Venue Form
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 2.16 PPG from 19 outings (12W 5D 2L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.10 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 23W 8D 8L in their last 39 games (1.97 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 14W 5D 20L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Den Bosch away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.16 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when ADO Den Haag won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 7, Den Bosch have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 68%, Den Bosch 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (ADO Den Haag) and 53% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of ADO Den Haag's games and 47% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 53% of Den Bosch's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat ADO Den Haag 0-2 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.65 xG and Den Bosch 1.15 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Den Bosch outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Den Bosch attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 49% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 27%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 59%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.