Salernitana 4-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Salernitana take on Carrarese.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Salernitana welcome Carrarese to Stadio Arechi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Salernitana have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Arechi, Salernitana have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carrarese — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Serie B this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Carrarese — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Salernitana trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Carrarese trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 50% versus Carrarese 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Salernitana 43% | Carrarese 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.13 xG and Carrarese 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.792 / defence 1.276 | Carrarese attack 0.701 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.105. Salernitana's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Salernitana games / 14 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 36% | Draw 36% | Carrarese 29%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Carrarese 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 60% | Carrarese 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 36% | Draw 36% | Carrarese 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Salernitana 1.13 / Carrarese 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.792 / def 1.276 | Carrarese attack 0.701 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Carrarese xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Carrarese kick off?
Salernitana vs Carrarese kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Carrarese?
Salernitana 4 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Salernitana vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Carrarese part of?
Salernitana vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 36% chance of winning, Carrarese a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Salernitana and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Carrarese in?
Salernitana (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Salernitana vs Carrarese?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.79x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
36%
2.80
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.12
0.99
Carrarese xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Salernitana and 0.99 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salernitana's recent record stands at 3W 4D 7L from 14 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 6L across 14 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salernitana on 0.93 PPG, Carrarese on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 1W 1D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salernitana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salernitana are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.86 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Carrarese in 29%.
Defensively: Carrarese in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Carrarese away?
Salernitana's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.14 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Carrarese in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Salernitana
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Carrarese 3-2 Salernitana.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 57%, Carrarese 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Salernitana) and 43% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 43% of games; Carrarese in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Salernitana's recent matches and 43% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Salernitana's recent games and 43% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Carrarese tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Salernitana run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Carrarese 4-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.13 xG and Carrarese 0.99 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Salernitana beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.79 / defence 1.28 against Carrarese attack 0.70 / defence 1.18, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 36% | Draw 36% | Carrarese 29%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 43%, Carrarese 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 0.93 PPG, Carrarese 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salernitana win broke the near-deadlock. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Carrarese (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.