Pisa vs Arezzo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arezzo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Pisa welcome Arezzo to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Arezzo — All Games: 2W 0D 3L from 5 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Arezzo have posted 2W 0D 1L from 3 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Arezzo — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Arezzo trading profile (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 60% and Arezzo 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pisa 80% | Arezzo 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.37 xG and Arezzo 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.789 / defence 1.408 | Arezzo attack 0.841 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.184. Pisa's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arezzo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Pisa games / 5 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 37% | Draw 26% | Arezzo 38%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Arezzo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arezzo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arezzo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 60% | Arezzo 33%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 37% | Draw 26% | Arezzo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Pisa 1.37 / Arezzo 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.789 / def 1.408 | Arezzo attack 0.841 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Arezzo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Arezzo xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Arezzo kick off?
Pisa vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Where is Pisa vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Arezzo part of?
Pisa vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 37% chance of winning, Arezzo a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Arezzo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pisa and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Arezzo in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Arezzo (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.79x the league average against Arezzo's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arezzo's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arezzo Win
37%
2.74
26%
3.90
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.77
1.40
Arezzo xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Pisa and 1.40 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Arezzo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Arezzo sit at 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.40 PPG, Arezzo on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pisa's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Arezzo have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.20 PPG overall record — Arezzo travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arezzo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Arezzo in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Arezzo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Arezzo away?
Arezzo's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.00 PPG; Arezzo away: 2.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 67%, Arezzo 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pisa and 67% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arezzo in 33%; Pisa have failed to score in 33% of games; Arezzo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Arezzo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Pisa's recent matches and 33% of Arezzo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pisa's matches and 67% of Arezzo's.
Do Pisa and Arezzo tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.