Modena vs Sampdoria – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 32 as Modena welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Sampdoria — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.30 PPG, Sampdoria 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sampdoria, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Modena.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Sampdoria winning.
It is worth noting that Sampdoria have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Sampdoria trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 51% versus Sampdoria 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 51% | Sampdoria 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.40 xG and Sampdoria 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.930 / defence 0.959 | Sampdoria attack 0.791 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.184. Data: 43 Modena games / 43 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 48% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 24%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Sampdoria 4.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Sampdoria 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 48% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Modena 1.40 / Sampdoria 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.930 / def 0.959 | Sampdoria attack 0.791 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Modena (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Sampdoria xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Sampdoria kick off?
Modena vs Sampdoria is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Sampdoria part of?
Modena vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 48% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Modena and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sampdoria?
Record (6 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 4W.
What form are Modena and Sampdoria in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Modena's attack at 0.93x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.63
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Modena xG
Total xG
2.29
0.90
Sampdoria xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
6%
16.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Modena and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Modena and 0.90 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 11D 15L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 1.12 PPG from 43 outings (12W 12D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.44 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Modena's home form reads 10W 4D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 0.59 points per game from 22 outings (2W 7D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.93 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Sampdoria away?
Modena's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.55 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Modena or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Modena's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
4
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Sampdoria have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 54%, Sampdoria 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Modena) and 41% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sampdoria in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Modena's games and 59% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Modena's recent games and 41% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.