Modena vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Modena at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Modena host Benevento at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Modena — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 2W 1D 2L from 5 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 1.30 PPG versus Benevento's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Modena have won 1, Benevento 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Modena winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Modena in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 60% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.

Benevento in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 60% and Benevento 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 60% | Benevento 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.18 xG and Benevento 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.932 / defence 0.960 | Benevento attack 0.730 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.184. Data: 43 Modena games / 5 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Modena 44% | Draw 30% | Benevento 26%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Benevento 60%.

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