Cremonese vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Empoli at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.10 PPG versus Empoli's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cremonese have won 1, Empoli 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Empoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Empoli in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 42% versus Empoli 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 46% | Empoli 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.26 xG and Empoli 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.824 / defence 1.106 | Empoli attack 0.932 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.184. Data: 5 Cremonese games / 43 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 27% | Empoli 35%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 50% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 27% | Empoli 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Cremonese 1.26 / Empoli 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.824 / def 1.106 | Empoli attack 0.932 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Empoli xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Empoli kick off?
Cremonese vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Empoli part of?
Cremonese vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 37% chance of winning, Empoli a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cremonese and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Empoli?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 2W.
What form are Cremonese and Empoli in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.82x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
37%
2.68
27%
3.67
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.48
1.22
Empoli xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.22 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 43 games, going 9W 12D 22L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.09 PPG from 43 outings (11W 14D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.91 PPG, Empoli on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 4W 8D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (5W 3D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.19 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Empoli in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 9W 12D 22L in their last 43 games (0.91 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Empoli away?
Cremonese's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.91 PPG; Empoli away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Cremonese
0
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Empoli?
From 3 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Empoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Empoli 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 59% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 41% of games; Empoli in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 59% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Empoli tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Empoli in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.