Carrarese vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 38%, yet in-form Cremonese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Carrarese vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 38 as Carrarese welcome Cremonese to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio dei Marmi — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 1.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Carrarese's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Carrarese, 1 for Cremonese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Carrarese trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 46% versus Cremonese 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 46% | Cremonese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.18 xG and Cremonese 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.729 / defence 1.034 | Cremonese attack 0.864 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.184. Carrarese's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Carrarese games / 5 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 38% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 33%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 40% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 38% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Carrarese 1.18 / Cremonese 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.729 / def 1.034 | Cremonese attack 0.864 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cremonese xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Cremonese kick off?
Carrarese vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at Stadio dei Marmi.
Where is Carrarese vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Cremonese part of?
Carrarese vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 38% chance of winning, Cremonese a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Carrarese and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Cremonese in?
Carrarese (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carrarese's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
38%
2.60
29%
3.46
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.23
1.06
Cremonese xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.06 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 15D 18L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese's form line: 9W 12D 22L from 43 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.05 PPG, Cremonese on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 5W 4D 12L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.86 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 9W 12D 22L in their last 43 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Cremonese away?
Carrarese's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.33 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Carrarese
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 0, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Carrarese 2-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Carrarese 33% BTTS, Cremonese 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Carrarese) and 43% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 48% of games; Cremonese in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Carrarese's recent matches and 33% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Carrarese's recent games and 43% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Cremonese tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.