Benevento vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Carrarese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Carrarese at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Carrarese — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Benevento carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Benevento, 0 for Carrarese and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Benevento winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 60% versus Carrarese 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 40% | Carrarese 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.33 xG and Carrarese 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.011 / defence 1.109 | Carrarese attack 0.832 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.184. Data: 5 Benevento games / 43 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 42% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 30%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Carrarese 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Benevento 100% | Carrarese 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 42% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Benevento 1.33 / Carrarese 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.011 / def 1.109 | Carrarese attack 0.832 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Benevento (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Carrarese xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Carrarese kick off?
Benevento vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Carrarese part of?
Benevento vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 42% chance of winning, Carrarese a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Benevento and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Carrarese?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Benevento and Carrarese in?
Benevento (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Carrarese (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.01) and Carrarese's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.64
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.42
1.09
Carrarese xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Benevento and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Benevento and 1.09 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benevento come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Carrarese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Benevento
0
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Carrarese?
From 1 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Carrarese 0-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Carrarese?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Carrarese tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 60%, Carrarese 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Benevento and 20% for Carrarese.
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Benevento's recent matches and 40% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Benevento's recent games and 20% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Carrarese tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.