Udinese vs Monza – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Udinese at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Monza at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 April 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Monza have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Monza have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 1.10 PPG versus Monza's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Udinese have won 3, Monza 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 3–2 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Monza in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 49% versus Monza 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 46% | Monza 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.52 xG and Monza 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.809 / defence 0.938 | Monza attack 0.880 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.331. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Udinese games / 5 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 47% | Draw 26% | Monza 27%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Monza 3.70. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 30% | Monza 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 47% | Draw 26% | Monza 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Udinese 1.52 / Monza 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.809 / def 0.938 | Monza attack 0.880 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Udinese (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Monza xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Monza kick off?
Udinese vs Monza is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 April 2027 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Monza part of?
Udinese vs Monza is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 47% chance of winning, Monza a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Udinese and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Monza?
Record (7 meetings): Udinese 3W | Draws 3 | Monza 1W.
What form are Udinese and Monza in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Monza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.81) and Monza's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.91
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.62
1.10
Monza xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
6%
16.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Udinese and 1.10 for Monza, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 9D 19L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.86 PPG from 43 outings (23W 11D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 6W 6D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.55 points per game from 22 outings (9W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.65 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Monza in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Monza have gone 23W 11D 9L in their last 43 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.09 PPG; Monza away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Udinese or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Monza in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Monza runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Udinese
3
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Monza?
From 7 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Monza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Monza 2-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Monza?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 41%, Monza 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Udinese) and 50% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 36%; Udinese have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Udinese's recent matches and 54% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Udinese's recent games and 50% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Monza tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Monza in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.